Trends Watch: January 10, 2019

EisnerAmper’s Trends Watch is a weekly entry to our Alternative Investments Intelligence blog, featuring the views and insights of executives from alternative investment firms. If you’re interested in being featured, please contact Elana Margulies-Snyderman.

This week, Elana talks with Michael Sonenshine, CEO, Symfonie Capital.

What is your outlook for alternatives?

Volatility has increased sharply in the last few months.  Macro indicators in the U.S. and Europe look set for mild weakening.   I think leveraged hedge funds will suffer.   Short- and medium-term fixed income should be relatively safe.  

What is your outlook for the economy?

Both the U.S. and Europe appear headed for a soft 2019. The U.S. faces headwinds from rising interest rates, import tariffs and political deadlock in Washington.  It is also possible we may see impeachment proceedings in the wake of the Mueller investigation.  Europe, meanwhile, faces increasing uncertainty from BREXIT, political and social unrest in France and a weakening of Angela Merkel's governing coalition in Germany.

What keeps you up at night?

The geopolitical environment is getting generally worse with the backlash of nationalist, protectionist, and populist sentiment.  This is problematic for global trade and it increases the possibility for conflict especially in the Middle East and also in Africa.  The Middle East is particularly worrisome.