Brexit Update - September 2018

DP: That’s a good synopsis of where we’ve been. So where are we going? What’s next? What are some of the key concerns given that a hard Brexit is becoming more and more likely?

HA: I think it’s become very apparent that Theresa May wants to lobby the EU leaders in September in Salzburg – at the Salzburg meeting – even though it has been made clear that only formal talks allowed by the chief negotiator, Michael Barnier, and so May is allowed to update EU leaders on her plans at the quarterly EU summits, but is not in the room for discussions. So, the Salzburg meeting is definitely the next key piece, and we have seen that the concerns are primarily around the Irish border dilemma, and the worry – it’s clearly marked in the markets and the falling pound as well, that a no-deal position is a reality given the very short time frame leading up to March of next year. The EU kind of wants to take the stance of a carrot and stick negotiation, trying to really firm-up its position about the Irish border and therefore making some trade concessions in the process. I think after the Salzburg gathering there’s going to be – within four weeks of that – an EU summit in Brussels, which will really, hopefully, allow Theresa May to strike a deal. I think the key concerns about the no deal are agriculture, in particular. We’ve sort of read in the newspaper about the U.K., you know, potentially stockpiling food because there’s a lot of agricultural trade between the EU and the U.K. – up to £45 billion worth of it – and then pharma is also a big concern where vital supplies of medications should be stockpiled for six week’s supply in case of that. I think really that the autumn-December period is going to be crucial to see what’s happening before we really can go to the sprint up to March of next year.

DP:Now you mention the Irish border and the customs implications are at the center of the debate. Expand on that if you could.

HA:Correct. On August 16, negotiators discussed the problems with the Irish border with the two sides deeply divided over how to avoid customs checks at the crossing, along with the U.K.’s future relationship with the EU, and I think there it is very key that there hasn’t really been a practical option on how to impose customs and tariffs at the Northern Ireland border, and there isn’t also a practical technology that could be employed that would allow us not to have a hard border there. The EU sees serious problems with the Chequers plan – the blueprint that was released by Theresa May – and has dismissed that the customs idea is pretty much unworkable. However, EU negotiators have not entirely written off May’s plan to see the kernel of a free trade agreement. But this outcome would fall short of the Prime Minister’s hopes for deeper economic ties with the EU.

DP:Given all these moving parts – and there are a lot of moving parts here – what are you specifically telling clients as we near March 29, 2019?

HA: I think the likelihood of a hard Brexit is increasingly happening, and we will see if negotiations this coming autumn can turn this around. We have already seen in the newspapers that many multinationals have already started to shift business operations and restructure their businesses, and that is to lessen the effect of a potential no-deal Brexit. That gives them more agility and hopefully allows them to have a softer landing depending on the outcome. As always, my advice is be prepared, plan ahead, and actively monitor your risk and exposure due to Brexit.

DP:Sure, because as we sit here in September 2018, a lot can happen between now and March 2019. So, Henric, thank you very much for unpacking all of this for our listeners – to be continued – we’ll continue to have these updates as we go along, and thanks again for your insight.

HA: Thank you.

DP:And thank you for listening to the EisnerAmper podcast series. Visit EisnerAmper.com for more information on this, and a host of other topics, and join us for our next EisnerAmper podcast when we get down to business.