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NY Delinquency Rate Performance

How is the New York metropolitan real estate investment market doing? Tom Fink discusses the tri-state area commercial mortgage-backed security delinquency rates. It shows that New York State is outperforming its cohorts in NJ and PA. He commented that a lot of the positive performance in NY is concentrated in New York City, particularly in Manhattan. He thinks that’s the market that is driving all of NY State.

“We still see problems outside of the metropolitan area, particularly as you get upstate.” Fink acknowledges what NY State is doing to try to draw businesses upstate with the development and the tax forgiveness plans. In conclusion, it appears that NY has a long way to go before the upstate real estate market is as healthy as the NY City area.


Transcript

Aaron Kaiser: Hello, I'm Aaron Kaiser, Partner at EisnerAmper and Co-Chair of our firm’s Real Estate practice. It's my pleasure today to introduce Tom Fink, Senior Vice President and Managing Director of Trepp LLC. Trepp was founded in 1979 and is the leading provider of information analytics and technology to the commercial mortgage back securities, commercial real estate and banking markets. Welcome. So, Tom, how is the New York metropolitan market doing in all of those?
Tom Fink: Well, Aaron, as you can see from the chart I've put up on the screen here, this breaks down the delinquency rate, which is 30, 60, 90 and foreclosure REO for New York versus Pennsylvania and New Jersey.


Aaron Kaiser is an Audit Partner and member of the Professional Practice Group and a leader in the Real Estate accounting services group.

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More Videos in This Series
Government Sponsored Organizations

What role are government-sponsored organizations playing in the real estate market today? Tom Fink stresses that government-sponsored agencies are still very important factors in today’s real estate marketplace.


Non Performing Debt

What is the change in the level of non-performing debt and which way is the trend going? Tom Fink discusses the delinquency severity breakdown, saying “we’ve seen a real decline in the overall level of delinquencies in the market.”


Higher Interest Rates

Would a rise in interest rates affect the coming wall of maturities? Tom Fink states that if interest rates were to go up substantially that would provide an issue for the marketplace because of the uncertainty of the volatility.


Trends in the Various Lending Classes within Real Estate

In terms of safety and risk, what trends can be seen in the different lending classes? Tom Fink thinks credit standards have loosened over the last two to three years as more money becomes available and borrowers get better terms and conditions.


International Question

After discussing New York, Tom Fink discusses markets around the world from an equity perspective and how there's an awful lot of money is still available for pursuing equity investments in real estates around the globe in terms of debt.


Domestic Findings

The New York real estate market is doing relatively well. How is New York doing compared to the country as a whole? Tom Fink illustrates by showing the nation sectioned into regions and shows the delinquency rate in each region.


Emerging Technology

When asked about the important emerging technologies in the marketplace, Tom Fink replies, “I think we still have a long way to go before technology is really a factor in the commercial real estate market space. But, I think it’s still an exciting time”.


Future Trends in the Real Estate Market

Tom Fink discusses the estimated upcoming commercial real estate debt maturities with annual maturities by lender type. The last 3 years have shown a continued erosion of the amount that’s due in 2016 and 2017 as people pre-pay loans.


Current State of the Market

The real estate industry has made a strong rebound since 2009 – it’s healthy, back on its feet and active. Rates continue to be at a historic low and there is still a huge amount of stimulus outstanding.