Future Trends in the Real Estate Market

January 22, 2015

In this segment Tom Fink discusses the estimated upcoming commercial real estate debt maturities with annual maturities by lender type. It demonstrates that there is still around $1 trillion of debt coming due from 2015 to 2017.

The last 3 years have shown a continued erosion of the amount that’s due in 2016 and 2017 as people pre-pay loans, as properties get sold and as distressed debt works out. There is a wall of maturity coming, in excess of $100M dollars, but the market has demonstrated the resilience to be able to address that and carry forward even in light of that coming volume.

Transcript

EISNERAMPER:It's my pleasure today to introduce Tom Fink Senior Vice President and Managing Director of Trepp LLC. Trepp was founded in 1979 and is the leading provider of information analytics and technology to the commercial mortgage, backed securities, commercial real estate and banking markets. Welcome, put on your Swami hat and tell us what you think is going to happen in the future, particularly going forward. It's a lot of maturities coming forward with that market.
Tom Fink:Well as you can see from the chart, we've graphed the upcoming maturities as we best get estimate them at both CMBS banking and the other markets that are picked capital providers and you can see we still are facing somewhere around a trillion dollars of debt coming due 2015 to 2017.

Among the banking, the CMBS markets are the two big contributors to that. The fact of the matter is that we have been already putting a big dent in that market because this year alone. For example, with $100 million dollars to CMBS that's being done, there was only about $60 billion of CMBS maturing, so we have been seeing over the last three years a continued erosion of the amount that's due in 16 and 17 as people pre-pay loans as properties get sold as distressed at works out. So, yes, there is a wall of maturity coming. Yes, it's an excess of $100 million dollars, but I think the market has demonstrated the resilience to be able to address that carry forward even in light of that volume.
EISNERAMPER:Tom, thank you very much for your insights and thought leadership.
Tom Fink:Aaron, it was my pleasure. I always liked working with you and the folks at EisnerAmper.
EISNERAMPER:Thank you so much. For more information go to EisnerAmper.com.

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International Question

After discussing New York, Tom Fink discusses markets around the world from an equity perspective and how there's an awful lot of money is still available for pursuing equity investments in real estates around the globe in terms of debt.

Domestic Findings

The New York real estate market is doing relatively well. How is New York doing compared to the country as a whole? Tom Fink illustrates by showing the nation sectioned into regions and shows the delinquency rate in each region.

Emerging Technology

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