Local Election Commentary
November 08, 2016
By Michael Sadler
Recently, First Long Island Investors, LLC (“FLI”) hosted a breakfast discussion with Meena Bose, Executive Dean for Public Policy and Public Service Programs, Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs at Hofstra University. The topic: “who will win the White House in 2016 and what will happen after the election.”
Dr. Bose started the conversation by discussing the candidates. Hillary Clinton is the establishment candidate. The media loved her during the Democratic primaries and this was a major reason she was able to defeat Bernie Sanders. Clinton is running a general election campaign targeting all voters and stressing process more than policy. Donald Trump is the anti-establishment candidate. Dr. Bose suggested that Trump was able to get through the Republican primaries because the party did not unite around any other candidate. As with Clinton, the media’s love of Trump (he is entertaining) also played a role in securing him the nomination. Unlike Clinton, Trump is running a primary campaign using broad themes of change and only appealing to his base constituency.
Dr. Bose predicts that Clinton will win the Presidency because the states she is expected to win give her the required number of electoral college votes. There is a slight chance for Trump to win if he surprises everyone and wins some of the swing states.
Dr. Bose concluded that the candidate who wins will have the daunting task of trying to unify a country that is greatly divided. This may not be possible and the United States may have to wait four more years for a candidate that is able to provide unification.